Political loyalties change
Massive realignment rocks Democrats, GOP
President-elect Donald Trump gave a victory speech in Florida. REUTERS via USA TODAY
Election 2024 brought us former GOP vice president Dick Cheney and his daughter, Liz, endorsing Kamala Harris and Democrats Elon Musk, Robert F. Kennedy Jr., and Tulsi Gabbard endorsing Donald Trump.
These alliances are unthinkable.
They are symbols of massive political realignments underway in American politics. Left-wing media such as CNN, The Nation, The Hill`, and Newsweek and more moderate to right-of-center outlets such as Pew Research Center and The Dispatch have tackled this.
The days of working-class Americans, combined with Southern Blue Dog Democrats, minorities, unions, and classic liberals aligned with Democrats have given way for many average Americans supporting Republicans. The GOP is no longer the “party of the rich,” small business owners, suburban soccer moms, and evangelical Christians.
For years, Democrats also embarked on identity politics, appealing to people united in specific groups, such as feminists, gays, blacks, Hispanics, and others. They believe people will vote according to their group.
Democrats are now the party of the elites–entertainers, media, academia, and a gender gap that has women supporting Democrats, and Republicans the party of men. There aren’t nearly as many elites as there are average working-class Americans.
Even Trump noted the broad coalition that supported him, a cross-section of every area and group of Americans nationwide.
Another key factor in the political realignment is religion, or the lack thereof. Republicans have strong support from regular church attenders. Meanwhile, Democrats get solid turnout from the Nones, people who are atheists, agnostics, or who claim no religious affiliation.
We saw early signs of the realignments coming on Election Day. Consider the following from Scott Jernnings, the GOP contributor to CNN’s election coverage. Jennings has worked for several GOP candidates, including former President George W. Bush and Mitt Romney.
Gallup released details on the shifts in the U.S. electorate in February.
Gallup wrote of particular note:
The Democratic Party's wide lead over Republicans in Black Americans’ party preferences has shrunk by nearly 20 points over the past three years.
Democrats' leads among Hispanic adults and adults aged 18 to 29 have slid nearly as much, resulting in Democrats' holding only a modest edge among both groups.
Whereas Democrats were at parity with Republicans among men as recently as 2009, and among non-college-educated adults as recently as 2019, they are now in the red with both groups.
Only partially offsetting these trends, the Democratic Party has gained adherents long term among college-educated Americans -- those with postgraduate education and those with a college degree only.
Kamala Harris gave her concession speech at Howard University on the afternoon of Nov. 6, 2024. J. Scott Applewhite/AP via people.com
Ruy Teixeira, a Democrat and researcher at the American Enterprise Institute, saw this election coming:
The facts must be faced. The Democratic coalition today is not fit for purpose. It cannot beat Republicans consistently in enough areas of the country to achieve dominance and implement its agenda at scale. The Democratic Party may be the party of blue America, especially deep blue metro America, but its bid to be the party of the ordinary American, the common man and woman, is falling short.
There is a simple—and painful—reason for this. The Democrats really are no longer the party of the common man and woman. The priorities and values that dominate the party today are instead those of educated, liberal America which only partially overlap—and sometimes not at all—with those of ordinary Americans.
An historic example unfolded in part of the Rio Grande Valley of Texas. In 2016, the nation’s most Hispanic county went to Hillary Clinton by 60 percent. Trump won Starr County by 16 percent.
Meanwhile, the weekend before the election the Des Moines Register reported Kamala Harris had a 3 percent lead in Iowa. Trump beat Harris in Iowa 56 percent to 43 percent. The poll created a conversation by Fox News’ Bret Baier with Karl Rove, Mark Penn, and Alex Castellanos, all active in campaign consulting.
Castellanos stated between 2020 and 2023 there was a shift toward the GOP in 30 of the 31 states that have voter registration by political party.
People were fed up with what unfolded during covid. That is the only significant event that occurred during that time to explain shifted party allegiances.
Consider the following chart as reported by Alex Berenson. Take away Florida and Mississippi from this list and you are left with states with hard lockdowns and covid tyranny.
Perhaps there’s only so much dictating, demanding, and mandating public officials can do before voters choose to push back.
It’s a new era and we’re about to find how these coalitions expand and the parties adjust. Welcome to the new normal.
